The war will be called the 12-day war, and now there is a ceasefire and peace, Trump declared.
The statement came the day after Iran responded to the American bombing of its enrichment facilities. The Iranians fired missiles at an empty American military base in Qatar, and they also gave advance warning. Most of the projectiles were shot down by air defences, and the damage was assessed as minor.
We knew from the outset that Iran had a well-developed missile system and drone technology. Although their air defences were not sufficient, several Israeli planes were shot down. Their biggest mistake was their lack of preparedness for cyber attacks and infiltration, which the Israelis carried out initially. Perhaps next time they will be better prepared? Overall, Iran appears to be a regional power that is not to be trifled with.
Was it worth starting the war?
We are seeing extensive devastation in Israel. They will need to rebuild a large number of damaged properties, repair extensive damage to Haifa’s port industries and probably a lot more. The Israelis have been sparing with information about the damage caused. We know that missiles detonated near airports, nuclear research facilities, military targets and the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence service.
Why did the Israelis attack in the first place?
The idea was to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If we are to believe Trump, the entire Iranian nuclear programme was destroyed. Meanwhile, the IAEA says that there was no nuclear programme and that the enriched uranium (which could potentially be used for bombs) was transported to a secret location. It also says that the enrichment facilities did not suffer as much damage as reported.
A minor victory for Iran.
If we are to crown a winner, it would be Iran. And it was reported that it was the Israelis who first contacted the Americans with demands for a ceasefire. Their expensive anti-aircraft missiles were running out, and when they could no longer protect their people and their country, it finally became untenable. And there was really no victory in sight. It was probably overly optimistic to think that the micro-nation of Israel, with its 10 million inhabitants, could defeat the giant country of Iran, with its 90 million inhabitants.
The situation is partly comparable to the war in Ukraine. Without Western, and above all American, help, they would not have lasted a week, and the war would probably not even have started without big brother standing behind them and watching over them. Or perhaps even cheering them on?
Is this a proxy war?
Is it in fact the case that the US is waging war against other nations through proxies? Neither Ukraine nor Israel had anything to gain. And in Ukraine’s case, they had a good relationship with Russia until 2014, and there was no reason for war or unrest. It was only when the US encouraged regime change and future NATO membership that the clouds gathered. While the situation is different in the Middle East, where there are often various small conflicts, even there the situation was better a few years ago and Israel enjoyed greater respect around the world.
Will the proxies be abandoned?
Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s was a proxy for the United States, and they fought for a long time against neighbouring Iran, which had already fallen out of favour. A few decades later, Iraq was instead occupied by the Americans and Saddam Hussein was executed. So, it costs to be a proxy. It is not certain that you will get away unscathed.
This time, we noted that Israel had to wait quite a long time before the United States retaliated against Iran. The cavalry rode unusually slowly. The devastation increased enormously with each day that the United States waited to retaliate. And we realise more and more clearly that the proxy, even if it has been in service for a long time, is replaceable and only of interest as long as it plays its role well.
There are, of course, other strange things about the Iran war, such as the fact that the American bombers that bombed the enrichment facilities were able to fly over the country completely unhindered. The Iranian air defence was probably partially disabled, but still. They should have been able to muster some kind of resistance. The B-2 bombers use ‘stealth’ technology, but this is becoming obsolete and can, of course, be tracked by modern radar systems. The absence of Iranian air defences is interesting, regardless of the reason.
Neoconservative think tanks in the United States have long been planning a war against Iran. The goal is regime change, not bombing nuclear research facilities. Perhaps Trump felt compelled to acquiesce to these forces?
The American involvement did not feel wholehearted this time, and there was a desire to end the conflict as quickly as possible, even though the US was the main instigator.
