In a changing world, it is increasingly difficult to predict events and trends for the coming year. So, let’s look at the big picture.
Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join BRICS this year. A cooperation that is outside the control and consent of the West, which instead becomes a competitor to the existing order, where until recently the US was the only legitimate superpower. Instead, we have a world where China and Russia are rising to become major powers in a more equal arena.
As the BRICS develop, the dollar’s position as a world currency is also under threat; the change will not happen overnight, but relatively quickly, and we will soon see a world economy that is no longer based on the US dollar. It will have a major impact, shifting economic power from West to East, much of which has already begun with the de-industrialisation of the US and Europe. And we will eventually realise that an app economy does not outshine a heavy industrial economy. Expensive lessons for us in the West. There are risks of a widespread recession ahead, with all that implies.
During the year, many countries will be going to elections, either for president or parliament, including Finland, Mali, El Salvador, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Senegal, Portugal, Panama, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Rwanda, Lithuania, Slovakia, Uruguay, Ghana, Canada and the UK. And last but not least, elections to the European Parliament, as well as the Ukrainian, Russian and US presidential elections.
It will be a real super election year with around 40 countries going to the polls. And according to some, there is a risk that artificial intelligence will influence voters, increasing the risk of political disinformation and democratic backlash across the world. What exactly is meant by this is partly shrouded in mystery, but we should probably be prepared for both electoral fraud and all sorts of foul play. It is conceivable that some ideas will be more widespread, favouring specific parties around the world.
After all, we’ve already seen how online phenomena can have a massive reach in a short period of time, and presumably can be used to influence general political trends and ultimately elections. So be prepared for new global mass movements. Probably the next one will be more emotional, now that we have had Hamas and Israel for a while, which is a real war situation, the new mass movement might be more reminiscent of metoo, trans or the climate? Something more introspective?
The super election year can be tumultuous even without AI (which refers to advanced machine learning or chatbots) and not real intelligence. We have many unpopular politicians around the world, and a growing disdain for the ruling class. The elections could be a setback for the established parties, with many new faces in the corridors of power, especially in the West. 2024 could be the great year of right-wing populism, and a setback for the left, globalists and progressive forces.
While Putin is probably safe, either because of his popularity, or his grip on the state apparatus, or both.
In the US, Trump will probably return to the presidency as he is undoubtedly the most popular candidate, barring any unforeseen events. And many are probably betting on the unexpected, again, whatever that might be.
Zelensky will probably not remain in office, he has played all his cards and most people are tired of him. New forces will take over, whether they will be pro-Western or pro-Russian may depend on the outcome of the war, which at the time of writing looks like a Russian victory in 2024.
The Russians will probably not occupy all of Ukraine, but only the eastern pro-Russian parts where the Dnieper River forms a natural barrier, and in the south with Russian-speaking cities such as Odessa. The old Galicia in the west, which belonged to both Poland and Austria-Hungary, is considered a powder keg, and it would cost more than it tastes to control this area. Putin has mentioned between the lines that a division and reunification of these regions is not entirely impossible. The question is whether Poles, Hungarians and Romanians are interested? Whichever way you look at it, there will probably be some sort of battered Ukraine without a coastline, locked between Russia, Belarus and Central Europe. What happens to this country remains to be seen.
Predicting what happens in the Middle East is not easy. If Israel is attacked in the north as well, there is a risk of a setback, as the Israeli army has proved to be less capable than many imagined, both in terms of combat capability, experience and intelligence activities. Whereas the surrounding Arab countries have become better equipped both militarily and economically. The US can of course help Israel, but probably without sending troops, just by bombing or supporting the Israeli army. There is a risk that the war will become a mere exercise in carpet bombing. And then many civilians will die, as is already happening in Gaza, where the Israelis have been heavily criticised for bombing women and children.
In media terms, this war is going the wrong way for Israel, and the question is whether the US wants to get its hands dirty in an election year by helping the Israelis? Hard to say, as a few quick victories could give Biden a well-deserved boost. Still, he is old and increasingly absent, his days as president are numbered, no matter how we look at it. The Democrats should have a new, fresher candidate up their sleeve.
Nevertheless, if the wars in Ukraine and Israel do not go according to Washington’s plans, a new front could be opened against China, using Taiwan as a proxy. However, there is a lot of foul play here because most countries have actually accepted the current one-state solution where Taiwan and China are seen as different parts of one country. And the time for challenging China is probably over, as it has become too powerful. A boycott and war situation would probably hurt the West more than the East, which has not stopped the Americans from continuing to stir the pot. This could be another failed war adventure for the West, with the tail between its legs. Perhaps the plutocrats will still be able to sell enough expensive weapons to their vassals, one last time, before the majority starts to realise that the emperor is not only naked, but also insane.
Those were the broad strokes. And can we even move on to the smaller details, without knowing who will be president of the US, or how the BRICS co-operation will develop, or what the new global mass trends will bring? I think we will have to make do with this for now.
