A few weeks ago, the Ukrainians carried out a number of spectacular drone strikes against Russian refineries, as well as office and warehouse buildings. The idea was that the Russian population would grow weary of the war and of Putin, and begin to voice their dissatisfaction with the protracted conflict. And the consequences of this discord would somehow divide the proud Russian nation, ultimately leading to the replacement of the leadership with new figures more to the liking of the Western powers.
But might it not also be the case that when a country is attacked, the population closes ranks and presents a united front to the outside world? We saw this most recently in Iran, where the mullahs were by no means deposed in the wake of military actions by Israel and the US. Instead, the population united against the external enemy. You don’t need to pore over Machiavelli to understand the whole situation.
So, instead, we are seeing the Russian military’s retaliation raining down on Ukraine. With significantly intensified missile strikes on Kiev and also against the port city of Odessa, including a maritime blockade. Ukraine is now landlocked and cut off from the sea, and finds it difficult to export or import essential goods.
Why didn’t the Russians take a hard line from the outset, then? Why this extremely protracted war?
One answer is that they want to stay on good terms with the local population, many of whom identify as Russian. Bombing their own compatriots and their homes and industries would not be in the Russians’ interests.
The second answer is that President Putin is, in fact, a stickler for the letter of the law of almost autistic proportions who adheres to international rules, as well as being rather soft-hearted and averse to unnecessary bloodshed.
The third, and more conspiratorial, answer is that this (unnecessarily) long war has deliberately depleted the reserves of NATO, the EU and the US, whilst exposing their military manufacturing industry as unnecessarily expensive and not particularly scalable. The Patriot missiles, to take one example, are manufactured almost entirely by hand, with around 600 produced per year. Yet over 1,700 were used during a war lasting just a few weeks. The system forms the backbone of NATO’s air defence. The Americans therefore have their backs against the wall when it comes to Iran, China and others, with whom the Russians are cooperating. Consequently, the West’s military dominance is on the brink of collapse.
Checkmate?
Hardly something the Western media would admit; according to them, Ukraine is still winning. I suppose they will be portrayed as the victors even once the country has been conquered, pacified and partitioned. The power of the media is sometimes more important than reality.
