Joe Biden has problems, his dementia is starting to become more apparent, he rambles and has difficulty speaking coherently, and there are rumours that he has pooped his pants in public. The idea that he can hang on and manage the presidential campaign until November is looking less and less credible. How will he even manage to hold a debate with his opponents?
And on the other side of the field is Donald Trump, whose indictments and lawsuits are piling up. There is no offence small enough to fall through the cracks, and it is clear that his opponents want to keep him out of the presidential race; perhaps that is the only way the demented Biden can win?
There is also Robert F Kennedy Jr, who is best known for his opposition to the Covid vaccine and the mental meltdown the pandemic brought. Initially, many saw him as a tinfoil hat, but perhaps not anymore, as much of the criticism turned out to be justified. The question is whether Kennedy has any chance? He is trailing both Trump and Biden, and those interested in odds and betting will note that he is not doing well.
Barring the unexpected, Trump will win the US presidential election in 2024.
It is precisely this unexpectedness that is interesting. In the last presidential election, it was uncontrolled postal votes that swung the campaign. And the postal votes were introduced and allowed because of Covid. We also had BLM spreading unrest across the US, and they were strongly against Trump.
The question is what unexpected things will happen in the summer and autumn?
The Democrats will not give up so easily. The problem is that vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris is unpopular; she often comes across as a bit dim-witted or tipsy. She is not a poster child, although four years ago she acted as a female black alibi for Biden, to balance the campaign. But then Biden was more alert and less demented. If the vice-presidential candidate is replaced, we can probably expect a change, but only after the election, when Biden finally resigns for health reasons.
If Trump is sentenced to prison, he will not be able to participate in the campaigns, but there is a risk that he will be martyred and win the election behind bars. It has been shown that his numbers go up every time he is accused of something. Voters see through the charade and recognise Trump as the sane party in an increasingly crazy circus.
Nor can we rule out a major terror attack or a war-like situation in which Biden declares martial law indefinitely. Then the US would become a dictatorship for real, although some argue that this is already the case, as the last election was presumably rigged in Biden’s favour. How the electorate and the people would react to a real dictatorship is hard to predict, but there is of course a risk of deeper divisions and turmoil. The question is whether the Democrats would be able to quell any uprising? This development is unlikely to favour any of the political parties, but only the ones who have invested money in the break-up of the US and its demise as a world power.
Biden could also resign for health reasons, even before the election, and a new candidate is launched at the last minute. Of course, there is some speculation that Obama would run again, or his wife Michelle, or Hillary Clinton? The cast of characters already feels stale, and it is perhaps surprising that there are no younger and better candidates on the agenda. The Democratic left wing, led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is considered to have no chance; she is merely a decoy to attract left-wing women. It is the old guard that rules. And the old guard is getting older.
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