Since World War II, the US has been involved in a large number of wars, either directly or indirectly. These include wars in Korea, Vietnam, Panama (and other Central American countries), Kuwait, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, and most recently Iran.
Many of these conflicts are explained away and blamed on mistakes or the spirit of the times. Why jungle villages in Vietnam were bombed in the 1960s is difficult to explain today. Or why non-existent weapons of mass destruction led to a war in Iraq that cost billions of dollars and thousands of lives?
Often, the blame is placed on the military-industrial complex, that war is simply big business. There are parties that profit from the conflicts, even if the US leaves the scene as the losing party, as they did in both Vietnam and Afghanistan, for example. This is, of course, a cynical way of looking at things, but it is difficult to explain it any other way, as the US repeatedly leaves its peace operations in worse shape than before.
Well, back to today’s conflict. Iran is not a backward country in global terms, and they have a fully functional missile defense system that can cause a lot of problems in the region, especially if oil shipments around the Persian Gulf are stopped. While the US, even if it sends aircraft carriers, has limited resources, especially as more and more allied military bases and radar installations are bombed.
In addition, aircraft carriers have played out their role in times of advanced missile and drone technology. And the fighter planes on the ships, which they can at best send into enemy territory, require air superiority, which is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve. Of course, the US also has missiles that can be fired into enemy territory, but production is limited and stocks must be replenished at all times in times of war. Iran is on home turf, and it is the US that must economize with its resources. All this points to a shorter war, similar to what we had last year, the twelve-day war. The question is whether Iran can be defeated in so few days?
Then there is the possibility that either Israel or the US will resort to the nuclear option. That they will simply send a nuclear-armed missile to Iran. Iran’s leadership is described as the minions of evil, and the ultimate weapon may seem logical in times of uncontrolled crisis. However, few believe that Iran also has nuclear weapons in secret.
An atomic bomb over Iran would lead to the deaths of many innocent civilians and contribute to a natural disaster with radioactive radiation in the area. The US and Israel would be portrayed as ruthless murderous regimes. No one uses nuclear weapons for that very reason.
Israel is fighting for its survival; it is a very small country with limited resources, and constant missile attacks are exhausting its defenses. Perhaps they did not expect Iran to have such a large stockpile of sophisticated missiles, perhaps they thought the US would be better able to help them or deter the enemy? The equation is not entirely clear here.
Like the war in Ukraine, this conflict also appears difficult to win. Israel cannot emerge victorious on its own, and perhaps not even with the help of two aircraft carrier fleets? The Americans are not as strong as they were 20-30 years ago, when they sent over a hundred thousand soldiers and vast resources to Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, two conflicts from which they ultimately withdrew with their tails between their legs.
It is more difficult to sell today’s war to American troops; who wants to sacrifice their life to help Israel, which many also consider a rogue state? The US is divided, and the war is increasingly seen as a kind of media distraction, aimed at getting us to talk about something else for a while, instead of keeping our eyes on the real ball.
For example, a victory over Iran could make Trump look strong, even if Ukraine surrenders to Russia in the background. Appearances are important these days. It has to look good, even if it smells really bad.
