Waging war against a state that is five times larger than your own presents almost insurmountable obstacles. This is particularly true when the opponent is a nuclear-armed superpower with deep technical and military traditions. Even with the support of allies, the result is likely to be a protracted conflict that ultimately ends in defeat.
The idea was probably not to win the war on the battlefield, but to put Russia in an uncomfortable situation, where sanctions and economic ostracism would bring the country to its knees, and the population would rise up against Putin, and we would get a regime change. A Western-friendly candidate would take power, and British, French and American companies would swarm around Russia, extracting natural resources and exploiting the country. And preferably a division of the empire into smaller, more manageable areas, which would be divided between the victors. Western think tanks have long painted such scenarios.
Well, the war did not go well, the sanctions did not work either, and Putin is still in power, even more popular than before. The prospects were difficult from the outset. Perhaps Ukraine had some highlights during the first months, but after that, things quickly took a turn for the worse.
In principle, the war was lost for Ukraine already in the first year, and they should have accepted the peace plan that was on the table in 2022, which gave them far fewer territorial losses than the peace plan that is currently on the table.
The Western powers convinced the Ukrainian leadership not to sign then, and several European countries do not want peace today either, but want to pursue the conflict. They want to continue a war that is already lost and cannot be won.
It is in many ways a cynical approach, to use another country and sacrifice their young men to defeat or weaken a potential enemy. We Europeans are sending many billions of euros to this hopeless project, which makes us instigators and sustainers of the war, and a large part of the money also ends up with middlemen and profiteers, which does not seem to bother us.
When the war project fails anyway, our leaders stubbornly continue, hoping for a miracle. And if the loss is measured in terms of regime change and partition, then perhaps it will be us who suffer this, as the losing party.
