It began with the assumption that it would be an easy victory for the US, that all of Iran’s warships and missile launchers had been neutralised, and that victory was a foregone conclusion. But the Iranians did not seem to realise they had been defeated; they continued to bomb American military bases, as far out as the Indian Ocean, as well as targets in Israel that were dangerously close to the country’s nuclear research facility. A heavy blow there might render Israel uninhabitable for a long time to come. Perhaps worth pondering, given that the Israelis themselves have considered ‘The Samson Option’, i.e. using nuclear weapons against the enemy.
A stalemate, then. The Iranians’ weapons reserves were far beyond expectations, as was their technical level. Meanwhile, the Americans are heading in the opposite direction; it is surprising that a state-of-the-art F-35 with stealth technology is being shot down. Likewise, American arms production appears to be extremely slow, and not at all suited to a forever-war war every five years. Rather, it is more like a sort of showpiece arsenal that impresses the Third World, but not so much on militarily equal nations.
The pundits in the alternative corners of the internet claim that the US can afford to wage war in the region for about a month, and now that we have passed the third week, we are inexorably approaching the end. Unless the Americans drastically change their tactics and allocate even more weapons from allied states. We have also seen desperate posts from Trump attempting to portray a victory and demanding the Strait of Hormuz be opened within 48 hours, which in practical terms is not closed at all; passing through it requires an agreement with the Iranians, something the Japanese and other countries have already arranged.
Many Americans and Europeans are wondering why we are at war with Iran? What is the purpose of this war on the other side of the globe, beyond the American sphere of interest? That it is due to Iran’s potential nuclear weapons programme does not feel entirely credible; they have had plans to build a bomb since the 1980s, but this has never materialised. Why now? And there are other questionable countries that also possess nuclear weapons: Pakistan, North Korea, and some argue that Israel should be included here too. Furthermore, the war currently underway might provide them with a reason to actually build nuclear weapons, to defend themselves against perceived or real threats.
But isn’t Iran a totalitarian state founded on religious extremism? Shouldn’t we influence them so that they fall into line and become a Western-style democratic country? Perhaps a little military pressure is needed after all if they don’t listen? And the US is, of course, the world’s policeman, travelling around ensuring that the world becomes democratic. Perhaps the war in Iran will be just as successful as the other American military adventures? Joking aside, we hope that Trump will swiftly return to the domestic policy agenda he spoke of during the election campaign, and that there will be a swift and lasting peace in the region.
