Ukraine intends to purchase 100-150 Swedish JAS Gripen fighter jets. The leaders of the two countries met and posed for photos in front of the aircraft, and the news was broadcast around the world.
That sounds like a lot. Currently, 74 aircraft are used by the Swedish Armed Forces. Brazil, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Thailand and South Africa also use the aircraft, but none of them have more than 20. Given the production capacity, it could take three years before the Ukrainians get their first aircraft. The question is whether the war will be over by then?
How will this deal be financed? Modern fighter jets are not known for being cheap. The Ukrainians have limited assets, the war is draining their resources, and the most industrialised areas are occupied by Russia.
The possibility of using frozen Russian assets has been mentioned. In this case, ‘frozen’ means seized or stolen. And since the Russians appear to be the dominant or winning party in the war, one should instead prepare for a relationship with them after the end of the war. Appropriating Russian money in this situation sounds like a dangerous deal.
Even if the Ukrainians get their fighter jets, the question is how they will be used. Fighter jets have not worked very well in this war for various reasons. If you read the Western media, they say that the Russians have not gained air superiority and are therefore using fighter jets to a lesser extent. And that the reason the Ukrainians are not using their planes is because the Russians’ planes are more powerful. Neither side controls the air.
The truth is probably that fighter jets have limited use in modern warfare, where both sides have air defences and swarms of drones that can disrupt or knock out expensive fighter jets. Fighter planes work best when you have air superiority, which can only be achieved against underdeveloped countries with very weak defences. Compare this with the wars the US is waging in the Middle East.
So, even if the deal is mostly a declaration of intent, one might ask what this is all about. Is it about scoring points in the media, to make NATO and Sweden appear decisive? Or is it about scaring the Russians into negotiations, similar to the previous deal with Tomahawk missiles, which may not be delivered on time either, but have a deterrent effect?
A few years ago, the Western powers, led by Boris Johnson, sabotaged the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul. NATO promised eternal loyalty to Ukraine and that it would never stop sending weapons, so there was no reason to sign the peace agreement. But now, perhaps they would rather end the war, or at least freeze the conflict? Times are changing, and the war has become a burden for all parties. And then perhaps the Gripen jets will be the final nail in the coffin for Putin, who will feel compelled to sign a peace agreement orchestrated by Donald Trump?
The problem is that the more time passes, and the more weapons NATO sends and empties its stockpiles, the greater the reason for Putin to end the war on his own terms. He kills two birds with one stone: he weakens NATO and slowly wins back the old Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine. And sooner or later, the Ukrainian army will capitulate to Russian superiority. The war in Ukraine was never intended to be won, but rather a way to weaken Putin both militarily and economically, and then hope for internal conflicts, disintegration and ultimately regime change. Right now, it seems that the plan has failed.
Photo: Airwolfhound from Hertfordshire, UK, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
