Israel initially shocked the Iranians with its cunning surprise attack. The Persians’ air defences were knocked out by electronic warfare. The country lay seemingly open to Israeli fighter jets and missiles. And the media reported on successful missions, in which leading military figures and scientists were killed, along with many others who happened to live in the same buildings. Military targets were bombed, as were nuclear facilities.
However, the very next day, the Iranians struck back, their repeated missile attacks breaking through the Israelis’ air defence system, Iron Dome. And the Iranian attacks continued the following day, with targets in the port city of Haifa and around northern and central Israel. According to unconfirmed sources, missiles struck Ben Gurion Airport or its vicinity. And we see images of the devastation, with bombed houses and rubble in the streets.
It appears that Trump has ordered a number of tanker aircraft to Israel’s rescue, and several ships are on their way from different parts of the world. However, there are few American troops in the Middle East, so there is unlikely to be a full-scale war. American air defences are also to be moved from Ukraine to Israel. The world police apparently cannot keep more than one war in the air at a time. There is also talk of depleted NATO reserves, as the extensive warfare is draining resources.
So, what is really interesting in this context? Well, first of all, the Israelis struck at the same time as the US was peacefully negotiating with Iran about their nuclear programme. And the negotiations were progressing, with the next meeting already scheduled. This probably gave the Iranians a sense of security, and they let their guard down. Trump, however, was aware that the Israelis were planning an attack and gave his approval, even though they were in the middle of negotiations. This move can, of course, be perceived as dishonesty and betrayal, not only by Iran but also by other countries that have dealings with the US. The Israelis could have waited with their attack until the negotiations had failed, if they were going to do it at all. But no, the negotiations were merely used as a kind of Trojan horse.
Secondly, we clearly have an excessive belief in the military resources of the Western world. American and Israeli weapon systems may not be quite as fantastic as they are claimed to be. At least three Israeli fighter jets have reportedly been shot down, including two F-35s. This information has not been confirmed, and Western media are sparing with their reporting. The Iron Dome is also not working as intended, with the barrage of missiles over Haifa revealing its shortcomings. Israel, a small country with densely packed infrastructure, is an extremely vulnerable target, and a prolonged war is unsustainable.
And thirdly, where are the Americans? Trump is apparently sending help, we have heard, but why is that help not already in place? The Americans knew about the Israelis’ plans, and the enormous aircraft carriers should already be off the coast of Iran, firing on targets inside the country. Instead, the USS Truman was allowed to leave the area a few weeks ago after a confrontation with the Houthis. So now we have to wait for other ships to arrive.
A few weeks ago, there were rumours of deep discord between Trump and Netanyahu. Could that be why the Americans are in no hurry? Are they leaving Israel to its fate?
There is much that is difficult to understand about this conflict. Have Israel and the West misjudged Iran’s capabilities? Underestimated their military resources? But the US and its allies have access to enormous intelligence resources, satellite data and everything else needed to form a relevant view of the situation. How can they make such a poor assessment?
Yes, there are many underlying reasons to attack Iran. On the one hand, we in the West want to spread democracy and put an end to religious rule. On the other hand, we want to stop them from developing nuclear weapons, even though countries such as Pakistan and India have had nuclear weapons for a long time. The fact that Iran also supports militant groups that are hostile to Israel does not make matters any better.
But to actually take action and attack this enormous country with 88 million inhabitants, in the middle of serious negotiations concerning one of the fundamental problems, is incomprehensible. And the fact that one of the parties involved is not even present when the war begins is also strange.
One explanation, and I really hope I am wrong, is that the United States and its allies are planning to end the conflict with unconventional weapons. And thereby send a warning to the rest of the world.
